Farmers in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu have reportedly been witnessing wilting in Bengal gram (chana) and shrivelling of paddy and cobs in maize. Paddy farmers are reportedly going through drying of the crop in a number of districts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana surrounded by the Krishna belt. Equally, poor cob formation with low grain weight has been noticed in maize.
“Gram costs are anticipated to witness an increase on-year owing to an upswing in pulse costs for the yr amidst decrease manufacturing of Kharif pulses,” stated Pushan Sharma, director-research, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics. “Nevertheless, within the close to time period, costs are anticipated to fall when the arrivals peak out there, which reportedly has been delayed because of the resowing of the crop in Maharashtra following November rainfall.” Sharma added that within the northern states, gram yields are more likely to stay at regular ranges.
Chana costs in key mandis of Indore in Madhya Pradesh are quoted within the vary of ₹5,900-7,500 a quintal, relying on the variability, in opposition to the minimal assist value (MSP) of ₹5,440. All-India common chana dal costs on Tuesday have been at ₹83.5 a kg, up 16.7% from a yr in the past, in accordance with spot merchants and the patron affairs ministry.
Paddy and maize costs are additionally anticipated to rise. Already, at ₹44.7 a kg on Tuesday, all-India common value of rice within the retail market was 13.1% larger than the corresponding interval final yr.
“So far as cereals are involved, paddy and maize output are anticipated to be decrease on account of the decline in acreages in Andra Pradesh, Karnataka West Bengal and Bihar owing to decrease water availability,” Sharma stated. “Costs of those two commodities are anticipated to rise within the quick time period due to decrease manufacturing and should stabilize if Kharif receives bountiful rainfall, which can improve the acreages.”
Queries despatched to the agriculture, shopper affairs, meals and public distribution remained unanswered at press time.
Rabi crops are being hit by falling water ranges in India’s 150 main reservoirs, which stood at 35% as of 4 April, Central Water Fee knowledge confirmed. The obtainable water stage, at 61.8 billion cubic metre (BCM), was 17% decrease than a yr in the past, and a couple of% beneath the common of the previous 10 years.
Falling water reservoir stage raises issues not solely concerning the water disaster in central and southern cities and hydropower era, but additionally the upcoming summer season crop sowing cycle in irrigated areas, which can weigh on the gross worth added (GVA) development of agriculture and allied sectors, in accordance with farm economists.
“The low reservoir stage is more likely to improve the dependency of summer season crops on rainfall. This may increasingly delay crop sowing in irrigated areas,” stated Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Rankings. “Regardless of a rise in irrigation depth, Indian agriculture has excessive dependence on rainfall. That is evident from agriculture GVA development within the December quarter of 2023-24.”
GVA of agriculture and allied sectors contracted 0.8% within the October-December quarter from 1.6% development seen within the earlier quarter. This was the primary time in 19 quarters that farm GVA noticed a decline. The expansion price was 5.2% within the year-ago interval. In FY23, agriculture GVA development stood at 4.7%, whereas within the first quarter of the present monetary yr, it was recorded at 3.5%.
Sharma, too, expects the sowing of the summer season crop or Kharif to be impacted. “Summer time crop sowing, which largely includes cereals like bajra and maize, pulses like moong, and greens like cucurbits and melons, are anticipated to be negatively impacted following decrease reservoir ranges throughout key states like UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu,” Sharma stated.
Within the case of wheat and mustard, which account for round 60% of the rabi acreage, agriculture specialists agree that yields could also be damage in some states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on account of decrease reservoir ranges coupled with excessive temperature. Wheat productiveness might shrink in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, elements of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat due to unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms. Nevertheless, the general output of those two crops is predicted to be larger than the earlier yr.
“In rabi, wheat is the primary crop; wheat harvesting is happening; we acquired rainfall however not sufficient to have a major affect on general crop output,” Pant stated. “It could have an effect the place temperature is larger… because the Kharif sowing in some elements was delayed, rabi was additionally delayed, and relying upon the length of the crop, whether or not it’s 80 or 90 days, the crop is at varied levels of harvesting. The temperature has began rising, however it’s unlikely to have a major affect on rabi manufacturing going ahead.”
The federal government estimates wheat manufacturing to be 112 million tonnes (mt) within the 2024-25 advertising season in opposition to final yr’s 110.55 mt whereas the trade estimates it at 105.7 mt in comparison with 102.9 mt the earlier yr.
The excellent news is that regardless of the troubles, specialists count on wheat and mustard costs to really fall. “For each wheat and mustard, costs are more likely to fall owing to larger manufacturing and ample home provide amidst an anticipated continued ban on exports of wheat and better manufacturing of mustard for the third consecutive yr,” stated Sharma.
For the previous yr, the federal government has been taking preventative measures to deal with meals inflation, together with export curbs on rice and sugar and retail interventions such because the introduction of Bharat atta, Bharat chawal and Bharat Dal, after decrease rainfall attributable to the El Nino climate phenomenon, leading to drought and extended dry spells in Asia because the Pacific Ocean warmed.
Whereas wheat (desi selection) costs in the important thing mandis of Madhya Pradesh are presently hovering within the vary of ₹2,400-2,450 per quintal in opposition to the MSP of ₹2,275, costs of mustard in Delhi market have been quoted at ₹5,200-5,250 per quintal in comparison with the MSP of ₹5,650, spot merchants stated. All-India common mustard oil and atta (wheat flour) costs within the retail market on Monday have been at ₹135.6 a litre, down 11% year-on-year, and ₹35.8 per kg, 4.3% larger than the earlier yr, knowledge from shopper affairs ministry confirmed.
In the meantime, the official climate forecast stated most areas will witness above-normal temperature in April-June, with central and western peninsular areas witnessing the worst of warmth waves. Nevertheless, southwest monsoon could also be regular to above regular, it stated.
India’s retail inflation marginally decreased to five.09% in February from 5.1% in January — nonetheless above the central financial institution’s 4% goal. The interval noticed meals and beverage costs surge above 7% for the fourth consecutive month.
Supply: Live Mint