It was a second consecutive week when Indian markets witnessed a powerful rally due to easing geopolitical stress, a fall in crude oil costs, the inline final result of the US Fed assembly, and quick protecting.
FIIs who had been promoting relentlessly for the final 5 months comeback final week with some shopping for and it is going to be attention-grabbing to see how the market will carry out after they proceed their shopping for. Within the final 5 months, they’ve bought greater than 2.3lac crore within the Indian fairness market which is their greater ever promoting. Earlier, their highest promoting was on the time of the worldwide monetary disaster in 2008 which was round 1.3 lac crore. The attention-grabbing level right here is that in 2008, Nifty and Sensex had corrected 60-65% resulting from promoting of 1.3 lac crore by them however this time, Nifty and Sensex solely corrected round 15% regardless of a lot greater promoting by FIIs. Home cash exhibits robust resilience this time and we’re now not totally depending on FIIs’ flows. Our markets are in a significantly better form in comparison with a lot of the rising markets and we’ve witnessed a powerful rally from decrease ranges due to this fact there is likely to be some feeling of lacking out amongst FIIs and so they could come again aggressively within the Indian markets that will gasoline an additional rally in our market.
The market has already factored in that the Russia-Ukraine problem could finish quickly nevertheless information flows associated to this problem could proceed to trigger some volatility out there.
Technically, Nifty is giving correct follow-up of bullish engulfing candlestick formation on weekly chart whereas it managed to shut above its 200-DMA and 50-DMA nevertheless 100-DMA of 17380 is a direct hurdle; above this, we will anticipate an additional energy in the direction of 17600/17800 ranges. On the draw back, 17200 ought to act as a direct help stage whereas 200-DMA of 17000 shall be a powerful base at any pullback.
Banknifty additionally witnessed a powerful pullback from decrease ranges nevertheless 36700-37300 is a essential resistance space and if it manages to take out this space then we will anticipate a short-covering rally in the direction of 38000/38500 ranges. On the draw back, 36000 is speedy help whereas 35500/35000 are the following help ranges.
If we have a look at the spinoff information then FIIs’ lengthy publicity within the index future has moved to 57% and the put-call ratio has jumped to 1.33 stage, each are indicating bullish positioning of the market. If we have a look at the OI distribution then put writers are displaying robust confidence on the 17000 stage.
*Santosh Meena, Head of Analysis, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Supply: Live Mint